Thursday, October 2, 2008

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E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly higher today on short covering and bargain hunting
buying after huge losses Monday and amid ideas the worst of
the financial market crisis may be behind. Bears still have
the near-term technical advantage in the stock indexes,
amid no technical clues that market bottoms are in place.
Look for any rallies in the stock indexes to be selling
opportunities in the near term.
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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 2 26/32 117 even today.
Prices closed near the session low today and gave back all
of Monday's big gains amid a strong rebound in the U.S.
stock market. My bias is still the financial market turmoil
will continue to produce a flight to quality into
Treasuries.

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $4.88 at $101.25
a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today
on short covering after huge losses on Monday. Traders are
still focused on a world economic slowdown and lessening
demand for crude, and that's bearish. My bias is that
rallies in crude will still be selling opportunities in the
near term.

November heating oil closed up 1,180 points at $2.9065
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 1,135 points at
$2.4750 today. Prices closed near the session high today on
short covering. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
this week's high of $2.6119.

November natural gas closed up 24.5 cents at $7.466 today.
Prices closed near the session high on short covering in a
bear market. Bears remain in technical control of nat gas.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above psychological resistance at $8.000.

CURRENCIES

CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 354 points at 1.4134 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have faded
badly.

The December Japanese yen closed down 163 points at .9498
today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh a 4.5-month high early on. Trading remains
volatile. A five-week-old uptrend is still in place on the
daily bar chart.

The December Swiss franc closed down 275 points at .8968
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
faded badly today. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at .9200.

The December Canadian dollar closed down 207 points at
.9422 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Bulls faded badly today.

The December British pound closed down 306 points at 1.7826
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 190 points at
79.43 today. Prices closed near the session high. Bulls
have regained solid upside near-term technical momentum.
Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of 80.90.


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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

METALS: December gold futures closed down $22.60 at
$871.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
as the market was hit with profit-taking and was pressured
by a sharply stronger U.S. dollar. Gold bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage but did fade today and
need to show more power soon.

December silver futures closed down 102.5 cents at $12.00
an ounce today. Prices closed near the session low. Near-
term chart damage was inflicted today. A stronger U.S.
dollar pressured silver.

December N.Y. copper closed down 215 points at 288.50 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh 18-month low today. Prices also closed at a bearish
monthly and quarterly low close today. A stronger U.S.
dollar pressured the copper market today. Prices this week
have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a trading
range on the daily chart. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage in copper. Prices are still in a three-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

SOFTS: October sugar closed down 23 points at 12.36 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low. A stronger
U.S. dollar weighed on the sugar market today. Bulls have
faded. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.00
cents.

December coffee closed up 20 points at 130.45 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quiet trading. Prices
did hit a fresh 13-month low today. Coffee bears have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December cocoa closed down $2 at $2,555 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Chart damage has been
inflicted this week and the bulls faded badly. Prices are
still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart.

December cotton closed up 63 points at 58.01 cents today.
Prices hit another fresh contract low today and then did
rebound a bit on tepid short covering in a bear market.
Still, serious chart damage has been inflicted recently.
Cotton bears still have the solid near-term technical
advantage.

November orange juice closed up 205 points at $.8895.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
in a bear market after hitting a fresh contract low early
on. Bears are still in technical control as prices are in a
2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

November lumber futures closed down $0.30 at $203.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
contract low, amid the financial market meltdown. Lumber
bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 22 1/4 cents
at $4.90 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low,
hit a fresh eight-month low and closed at a bearish monthly
and quarterly low close today. Prices also closed below
major psychological support at $5.00 a bushel today. A
bearish USDA report weighed on the market today, as did
worries about less demand amid the world financial crisis.

November soybeans closed down 49 cents at $10.45 today.
Prices hit a fresh 9.5-month low today and closed near the
session low. Prices also closed at a bearish monthly and
quarterly low close today. More chart damage was inflicted
today. A bearish USDA report today added to downside price
pressure, as did worldwide demand worries and seasonal U.S.
harvest pressures. Serious near-term chart damage has been
inflicted recently, including more today.

December soybean meal closed down $16.40 at $285.00 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six-
month low today. Prices also closed at a bearish monthly
and quarterly low close today. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in meal this week.

December bean oil closed down 95 points at 44.48 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bean oil prices are
still in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 12 cents at $6.80
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Prices today and hit a fresh 12-
month low early on. Serious chart damage has been inflicted
recently. The wheat bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Today's USDA supply and demand report was deemed
a bit friendly for wheat. Prices are still in a six-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.52 at
$100.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low as the
market was supported by short covering following big losses
Monday. However, serious near-term technical damage has
been inflicted recently, amid global recession worries.
Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart.

November feeder cattle closed up $1.22 at $103.80 today.
Prices closed near mid-range on short covering in a bear
market following limit losses and a new contract low on
Monday. Still, serious chart damage has occurred recently.
Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a steep seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart.

December lean hogs closed down $0.85 at $64.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
11-month low. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day"
down on the daily bar chart. Lower corn prices helped to
pressure hogs again today. Hog bears still have the
technical advantage and have gained more momentum this
week.

February pork bellies closed down the $3.00 limit at $93.75
today. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart and it
now looks like a bearish V-Top reversal is playing out on
the daily chart.



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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

BCX.Q09 CBOT SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX Aug 2009 72.50 2
+7.45
ND.H09 NASDAQ 100 INDEX Mar 2009 1613.5 93.5
+6.15
NIX.Z08 10 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Dec 2008 4.51509
0.22984 +5.36
SP.U09 S&P 500 INDEX Sep 2009 1173.1 52.3
+4.65
MD.Z08 S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX Dec 2008 730.3 32.0
+4.58
SMP.H09 S&P SMALLCAP 600 Mar 2009 363.0 15.1
+4.34
CL.Z08 CRUDE OIL Dec 2008 100.26 4.17
+4.30
RB.Z08 RBOB GASOLINE Dec 2008 2.4437 0.0927
+3.93
NK.H09 NIKKEI 225 INDEX Mar 2009 11665 440
+3.92
HO.X08 HEATING OIL Nov 2008 2.8947 0.1062
+3.81

LOSERS

NGX.H09 5 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Mar 2009 3.83503 -0.33392
-8.01
BCX.V09 CBOT SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX Oct 2009 72.50 -6.25
-8.01
PA.Z08 PALLADIUM Dec 2008 202.7 -17.0
-7.59
RB.Y$$ CHEESE-BARRELS (SPOT) Cash 1770 -140
-7.33
KB.Y$$ CHEESE-BLOCKS (SPOT) Cash 1805.0 -127.5
-6.60
SI.Z08 SILVER Dec 2008 12.275 -0.750
-5.76
SM.V08 SOYBEAN MEAL Oct 2008 279.4 -16.3
-5.50
NIX.H09 10 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Mar 2009 4.28525
-0.24266 -5.36
PL.F09 PLATINUM Jan 2009 1028.5 -56.4
-5.17
C.Z08 CORN Dec 2008 487.5 -25.5
-4.97

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