Ogun 2011 and the Clamour for Power Shift

Ogun 2011 and the Clamour for Power Shift


Of the three senatorial districts of Ogun State since its creation 34 years ago, the only senatorial district that has not produced the state governor is the West. However, agitation for power shift has heightened ahead of the 2011 general election in the state. Will power ever shift to Ogun West? Jaiyeola Andrews asks

Ogun State comprises three senatorial districts, viz: the East, which comprises the people of Ijebu and Remo extractions; the Central which consists of the Egba and the West which is inhabited by the Yewa/Awori. Besides Ogun West, the other two districts of the state - the Central and East, have respectively ruled the state twice. The East ruled the state between 1979 and 1983 during the Second Republic when Chief Olabisi Onabanjo held sway as the state governor. The district had its second shot in 2003 when the incumbent Governor Gbenga Daniel ascended the seat of power. Daniel is now running his second term as the state governor.
In the same vein, the Central had its first shot when Aremo Olusegun Osoba was elected the state governor during the Third Republic. Again, when this republic took off in 1999, Osoba was again elected and he governed the state for four years during the first term.
However, opportunities to govern the state have continued to elude the West district. The highest office it has ever held is that of the deputy governor, when the incumbent, Mrs. Salmot Badru, was jointly elected with Daniel in 2003. The principle of power shift has become a subject of discourse in Ogun politics. Indeed, much has been said both for and against the entrenchment of the principle. Even the ordinary man on the street of Ogun State has not been left out of the debate on the controversial principle as he regularly argues either for or against it.
For instance, while the people of the West insist that it is only fair and just for the East and Central to concede the plum governorship position to it in 2011, the Central views the appeal as unwarranted, saying it is rather its own turn to produce Daniel's successor. The East is technically out of the contest because the incumbent governor who hails from the district would have spent eight years of two terms in 2011.
The irony of the entire scenario is that while the West has continued to allege gross marginalisation since the creation of the state in 1976, the Central has insisted that it has equally been marginalized for eight years by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), by denying it the opportunity to produce either the governor or the deputy.
The protagonist of power shift in Ogun State, Dr. Tunji Otegbeye, who passed on recently had at different fora, canvassed the shift of power to the West where he hailed from. He argued that the West had for a long while been relegated to the background in the state, adding that since Ogun State belongs to all indigenes, it was not only unjust, but also unfair to deny any section of the state the right to produce the governor.
While serving as the president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, an indiigene of the state, was said to have had sympathy for the West and hence sought a situation where the district could have the opportunity of piloting the affairs of Ogun State. It has also been widely speculated that Daniel has a sentiment for the West as regards the choice of his successor. But at a recent retreat in Ijebu-Ode, the governor openly declared that he had no candidate for the 2011 governorship poll in the state as believed.
A serving senator representing Ogun West, who is also eyeing the governorship position, Senator Kola Bajomo, had told THISDAY at different times that for the sake of equity, fair play and justice, the West should be allowed to produce the next governor of the state.While admitting that it could be an uphill task, Bajomo said the West would appeal to both the conscience of the people of the East and Central districts on the need to support it in its quest for the governorship position.
Amidst all these arguments, the Central also argues that during the previous elections, it had always been open contests among the three senatorial districts, insisting that the West like other districts equally presented aspirants during primaries.
One of the founding fathers of PDP in the state, who is also an Egba high chief and a governorship aspirant, Dr. Femi Majekodunmi, in a chat with THISDAY, disagreed with the West's position on power shift. He said there is nowhere it is stated in the party's constitution that power must rotate among the senatorial districts of the state.
Besides, Majekodunmi insisted that no senatorial district could solely produce the governor of the state without the input of the other. He reasoned that the argument of the West was untenable, saying governorship primaries should be thrown open between the West and Central adding that the most important factor is the emergence of the best candidate that will serve the interest of the state. According to him, what should be paramount to people is to have a qualified governor regardless of the senatorial district he comes from.
Opposition to the clamour for power shift to the West has become so stiff from the Central, even as more governorship aspirants from the zone have continued to emerge. But the West is not leaving any stone unturned in the matter as no fewer than 15 governorship aspirants have already signified their intentions to take a shot at the exalted position in 2011.
It is however not clear whether power will shift to the West or not as the issue has even become more complicated due to the protracted bickerings in the PDP. Nevertheless, one factor that may likely work against the West is division, which has been the district's trade mark. It has also been said that the people from the zone easily compromise especially when they are induced with money.
It is however, believed that if the West must realise its ambition, it must urgently address the prevalent issue of lack of credible leadership. Observers believe that the zone must raise leaders who can go the whole hog in pursuing the cause of their people selflessly.
Also, Obasanjo's factor may in no small measure, play a major role as regards which of the senatorial districts - West or Central, will produce the next governor of the state. The former president hails from the Central senatorial district. Besides, it is believed that Obasanjo as the Chairman of PDP Board of Trustees [BoT], may wade into the logjam if the situation looks cloudy, to avoid a situation where the opposition may take advantage of the clamours to wrest power from the party.
Though Daniel will leave office after his two-term tenure expires, it will be out of place to totally rule him out as a factor in determining who succeeds him. He may employ the power of incumbency, to influence the choice of the next governor of Ogun State. Even though Daniel has openly declared that he had no governorship candidate in 2011, many political watchers in the state have dismissed the claim as false. This is against the background of opinions that the governor had at different fora, promised to ensure that the zone is given the opportunity to govern the state come 2011.
It was learnt that powerful forces from both the Central and East districts, such as Speaker House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Senator Jubril Martin-Kuye, former Minister for Mine and Steel, Alhaji Tunji Ishola, Senators Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello and Lekan Mustapha, business mogul, Prince Buruji Kashamu and host of others may prevent Daniel from determining his successor.
Opposition to the determination of his successor may be acute, owning to the protracted face-off that Daniel has had with notable leaders in the state and it is an open secret that these power brokers in the state are prepared to give Daniel the biggest political fight of his life.
With the unfolding political events in Ogun State, whether power will shift to the West come 2011 or not remains a matter of conjecture.